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Updates and growth forecasts

Updates and growth forecasts
Panorama Country Risk - Fall 2012

The global economic slowdown is confirmed this fall, in line with the recession in the eurozone and the emerging market deceleration.
Activity in the United States in on a steady path (around 2%), but the improvement in American businesses’ credit risk is flagging in the wake of growing concerns looming over the fiscal policy that will be implemented. Therefore the positive watch placed on the A2 assessment of the United States six months ago is being removed.
In Europe, the crisis, still very sharp in the south of the eurozone, now hits the core countries. Because growth is sluggish and payment incidents trending up notably, Coface places the country assessments of Belgium, France and the Netherlands under a negative watch list. The assessments on Australia and New Zealand have been downgraded considering the tangible problems the industry and service sectors are confronted to, even though growth is still underpinned by the mining sector performance.
As a reminder, Coface country risk assessment evaluates to which extent economic, financial and political trends influence the credit risk of local companies in a given country.



Growth forecasts



Country risk assessments: Modifications and rationale



Coface country risk book Fall 2012 update

Angola - Argentina - Armenia - Australia - Belarus - Belgium - China - Egypt - France - Georgia - Germany - India - Iran - Iraq - Kuwait - Lebanon - Libya - Mexico - Morocco - New Zealand - Poland - Romania - The Netherlands - Russia - Rwanda - South Africa - Syria - Tunisia - United Kingdom - United States - Venezuela



Country risk and business climate assessment methodology

The country risk assessment assigned by Coface reflects the average level of short-term non-payment risk associated with companies in a particular country. It evaluates the extent to which economic, financial, and political trends, as well as the business climate, influence financial commitments of local companies in a given country.

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