Country Risk Overview - April 2011
2011 growth scenario and risk outlook
Various events that marked the first quarter 2011 prompted us to revise our world growth forecast for the year, down from 3.4% to 3.2%. And based on virtually finalized data for the fourth quarter 2010, world growth for 2010 comes to 4.2%.
Austerity measures have affected domestic demand in Portugal and in the United Kingdom, whereas in Cyprus, the burst of the housing bubble have hurt households and generated difficulties in the banking sector. Portugal and Cyprus ratings have been downgraded from A3 to A4 and the positive watch on the United Kingdom A3 has been withdrawn.
In Japan, the earthquake and the tsunami, along with the nuclear crisis, will have an impact on the global supply chain and on the Japanese growth which has been revised down to 0.3%. Its A1 rating, the best risk level, has been put under negative watch. In Vietnam, the economy could experience a hard landing, due to the strong deterioration of the financial situation of the country. The country rating has been downgraded to C.
North Africa Near and Middle East
Political transition in Tunisia and Egypt, very serious deterioration in Libya and socio-political unrest in Bahrain and Syria, are that many events which will impact negatively on the economic and financial situation of these countries. Consequently ratings are put on negative watch or downgraded.