Chad

Moderate growth supported by non-oil sectors and public investment

In 2025, growth will slow slightly, weighed down by a modest decline in oil production. It will nevertheless remain supported by services and agriculture. In 2026, a moderate recovery is expected, driven by the rebound in oil and cotton production, and an increase in public investment. Agricultural output (sorghum, millet, maize, rice, peanuts) is expected to record moderate growth during the 2025-2026 season, although cotton production will remain stable after its decline in 2024-2025 due to flooding. The inauguration of a new ginning plant in early 2025 (capacity of 18,200 tons per season), along with industrialisation efforts in the cotton sector, should support production, exports, and investment in the medium term. Mining production, mainly artisanal, will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026, driven by high gold prices and expanded extraction capacity. Investment, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure, will also contribute to growth under the national development plan “Chad Connection 2030”. Launched in mid-2025, this plan foresees USD 30 billion in public and private investment, aiming to increase GDP by 60%, lift 2.5 million people out of poverty, and make Chad a regional development model by 2030.

However, the outlook for the oil sector remains uncertain. The 2023 nationalisation of ExxonMobil’s assets, which has prevented their sale to the British company Savannah Energy, has weakened investor confidence. Savannah Energy is suing the Chadian government for compensation and a court ruling is expected in the first half of 2026. The case led the company to abandon its solar energy projects (adding 500 MW of capacity) and is sending a negative signal to foreign investors and complicating the signing of new oil agreements.

Inflation is expected to ease in 2025, supported by lower global fuel prices, a good agricultural harvest and the replenishment of fish stocks in Lake Chad. The trend should continue in 2026. In March 2025, the Bank of Central African States lowered its key interest rate from 5% to 4.5%, which, combined with falling inflation and the influx of Sudanese refugees, should support consumption and investment.

Decline in oil revenues and heavy security and humanitarian expenditures

The budget deficit is expected to narrow slightly in 2025 on back of better resource mobilisation (+20% compared to the 2024 budget), while expenditures are likely to increase by only 18%. The rise in revenues will mainly come from non-oil income, the digitisation of tax collection, and the introduction of new export duties (on gum arabic, sesame, pistachio, leather products, antimony and raw copper) which started in mid-2025. At the same time, oil revenues are expected to decline due to falling global prices. The government plans to simplify taxation, reduce exemptions, strengthen arrears recovery and combat fraud. These reforms, encouraged by the IMF under an Extended Credit Facility of USD 625 million from July 2025 to July 2029, should continue to bear fruit in 2026. An additional increase in revenues is expected, thanks to new taxes on tobacco, cosmetics, single-use plastics and synthetic textiles. Despite these efforts, the budget deficit is likely to widen due to security and humanitarian spending, domestic debt (48% of total debt in 2024) service spending, and declining oil revenues. Investment spending is expected to grow under the national development plan dubbed “Chad Vision 2030.” In addition to bilateral and multilateral contributions, the deficit will be financed through the regional financial market. The debt ratio will rise in 2025 and 2026 on back of the persistent primary deficit and moderate growth. The IMF considers the debt sustainable but warns of a high risk of over-indebtedness owing to dependence on oil revenues and external financing, both of which are vulnerable to external shocks.

In 2025, the current account is expected to post a deficit on back of a declining trade surplus. Exports will be impacted by lower global oil prices — which accounted for about 70% of the total in 2024 — and a drop in cotton exports (Chad’s fourth-largest export product) after weak production during the 2024-2025 season. In 2026, cotton exports should recover thanks to better weather conditions and government support for producers. Rising gold prices and expanded production should also boost sales. However, these improvements may not be enough to halt the deterioration of the trade balance and offset the loss of USAID funding in 2025.

The government faces rebel and Islamist movements fuelled by popular discontent and poverty

In April 2021, Mahamat Déby became President of a military administration following the death of his father, Idriss Déby, who was killed by rebels. After a long transition, he won the May 2024 presidential election with 61.03% of the vote, and his party, the Patriotic Salvation Movement, secured a parliamentary majority in December 2024, winning 124 seats out of 188. These elections have strengthened his grip on power.

The government controls institutions and represses political opposition. The constitutional reform introduced in 2025 (extending the presidential term from five to seven years and removing term limits) gives the government an even stronger hold. However, popular discontent persists, driven by restrictions on freedoms, insecurity and the humanitarian crisis, but protests are suppressed. The civil war in Sudan has led to the influx of more than 1.4 million refugees (as at August 2025) who are mostly Sudanese. This discontent provokes rebel and Islamist groups (Boko Haram, ISIS in West Africa and Ansaru near Lake Chad), which remain active and challenge the government.

At international level, French troops withdrew from Chad in January 2025. Prior to that, some US forces left the country in April 2024, although cooperation between the US and Chad appears to remain in place. The country is also turning to new partners such as Russia, which has deployed Africa Corps militia personnel, as well as Egypt, Turkey and the UAE. The latter granted a USD 500 million loan at the end of 2024 to support public finances, complemented by a July 2025 agreement aimed at boosting investment and trade. Meanwhile, China remains a key player: Chad’s leading supplier and second-largest customer mainly purchases oil. Chad also cooperates diplomatically and militarily with the Confederation of Sahel States (CES), notably in the fight against Islamist and rebel groups. Last, although the country officially maintains a neutral stance in the Sudanese conflict, it has become a key transit point for arms shipments from the UAE to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) opposing the Khartoum government. Authorities seek to avoid confrontation with the RSF, which is supported by certain Chadian border communities.

Last updated: November 2025